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Monday, 30-Dec-2013 15:58 Email | Share | Bookmark
BofA On The 'Stealth Peak Oil Trade'-spun6


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BofA On The 'Stealth Best Oil Trade'
BofA strategist Ellie Hartnett says that a product he calling the "silent summit oil trade" can be setting option traders up for your "big negative amazement."In a note to help clients, within the reflection at "the lust for deliver, the soundless 'peak oil' trade & your EM barbell," Hartnett clarifies(emphasis incorporated):Many investors are hooked on Francisco Blanche's view the fact that WTI could slide to $50/barrel in coming years. A strong dollar-weak commodity scenery is seen as a lesser amount of helpful for Them.We think the particular "peak oil" theme seems to have played by itself out convincingly across countless equity sells and industrial sectors in the latest quarters (most of the big outperformance inside recent quarters has come through countries (e.g. South east asia, peripheral The european countries, India, Game hen) and areas (e.g. consumer discretionary, banks) that well once oil costs fall. This particular suggests that any combo associated with rising brings about and rising oil rates this year has to be big poor surprise to the majority of.Below is a guide showing the relative outperformance with financials together with wow power leveling eu consumer optional stocks as opposed to the broader industry since the beginning involving 2012.The green line will show financials, any red lines shows customer discretionaries, and the blue line illustrates the S&P 500.Bloomberg, Firm InsiderFinancials are right up 30 percent throughout that period and additionally consumer discretionaries seem to be up 30 %. The expansive market just has risen 20 percent over the exact same timeframe.So, as Hartnett suggests, if gasoline and loan rates end up planning higher found in 2013, businesses would likely be stuck off guard.Although consensus expectancy is that interest rates will improvement in 2013, a good number of expect oil to be bring down. However, all the commodity has been in rally application lately, and there are always geopolitical threats and upside down risks so that you can economic improvement that could help wow power leveling and support oil rates.
BofA On The 'Stealth Highest point Oil Trade'


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